Creating Future Options

Engineers and scientists are increasingly collaborating with their counterparts in marketing and operations to envision and prepare for their division’s or corporation’s future. Many of these planning efforts require both creative and analytical skills; and they frequently require the artful combination and integration of diverse facts, data, knowledge, common sense and imagination. In the context of these business planning efforts, research and development professionals often overlook the unique and useful point of view they can bring—a perspective that arises out of their unique functional responsibilities.

Creating future options for the business is a primary purpose for Research and Development. To fulfill their functional responsibilities, research and development professionals must spend considerable time thinking about future competitive conditions and possibilities. This requires a degree of competence in re-examining prevailing mental models about the current business and how they might change in the future. This competence brings a powerful and much needed perspective to multi-functional planning discussions. Seldom, however, do research and development professionals think about the mental models that are often unconsciously held—by themselves and others—about the future itself.

The fable of the six blind men and the elephant seems to fit as a description of how many management teams think about their collective future. The fable suggests that the future is like an elephant and each of us alone is like one of the blind men. Each blind man touches a different part of the elephant and, based upon his touch (experience), describes the whole elephant differently. One describes the elephant as a snake, because he is touching the elephant’s trunk. Another depicts the elephant as a tree trunk, because he is touching one of its legs, and so on.

The parable suggests that as we think about the future, it may be appropriate to remember that, as individuals, each of us may have only a part of the truth. Each of us is limited by our own perspective, experience and understanding. Therefore, it is risky to envision and plan for the future with like-minded individuals. Rather it is prudent to engage in these planning efforts with others who think differently. Thus, envisioning and planning for a future different from today requires the coming together of diverse points of view. This demands not only creativity, humility and patience, but also an appreciation of how each of us may think differently about the future itself.

Several years ago I attended the World Future Society annual conference. It is a very interesting and diverse collection of individuals, all of whom share very little in common except for an interest in things “future.” Surrounded by all this diversity I noticed that people seem to implicitly and unconsciously carry one of three basic orientations toward the future.

Some approach the future as something to predict. These types assume that the future is written. Precision, facts, projections, econometric approaches and the like are most important to people who carry this orientation to the future. Time frames tend to be relatively short-term and more operational for those who carry view the future this way.

Others approach the future as a problem to solve. These types assume that the future is only partially written. For them, we still have at least some control over our destiny. But as time marches on, we lose that control every day. So the challenge is to solve the future problems today. By solving these types of problems today we can influence the direction of future. Time frames tend to be more mid-term and developmental for people who are of this type.

A third group seems to view the future as a blank sheet. These types assume that the future is what you make it—it’s an “open book.”  Frequently, those who take this view appear to be relatively unaffected by operating concerns, preferring instead to think of the possibilities of new technologies and emerging market potential. Time frames tend to be more long-term for those with this view of the future.

Each of these mental models about the future has its own strengths and weaknesses. Each carries some element of truth and appropriateness. The point is not to argue which view of the future is better, but to ensure that all three views are being used in a balanced fashion.

As research and development professionals are constantly creating options for the future of the business, many are well positioned to expose unconscious assumptions that are held, not only about the business, but about the future itself. And in so doing, they make the actions and understanding that result from the planning process more useful to the corporation or division.

As an old philosopher put it so well, “The future is never what it used to be.” 

This article was originally published in Innovating Perspectives in June 1997. For this and other back issues of our newsletter, please visit our website at innovationsthatwork.com or call (415) 460-1313.